Rates Intelligence · Live dashboard
Rate Lock Index, should you lock or float your mortgage rate today?
A daily LOCK or FLOAT call and what each choice has cost, measured on daily lock rates. Updated every weekday. How it works
Today's call
LiveLocking caps the bad case: floating into a rate jump has cost more than locking a little early. A cost-of-regret default, not a forecast.
30-yr fixed, daily lock rate: 7.09% (Optimal Blue daily index, Nov 5)
Weekly survey benchmark: 7.18% (Freddie Mac, Nov 5)
Market averages, not a quote and not our pricing. As a wholesale brokerage we shop multiple lenders per file, and wholesale pricing typically runs below retail averages.
Today's brief: 30-yr mortgage 7.09% (daily lock index) — LOCK: floating 30 days has cost up to 48 bps in the bad case (P95) across the last two years of daily lock rates; locking early cost less. Cost-of-regret default, not a forecast. (Nov 6)
Updated every weekday · lock-rate data as of Nov 4
How the index worksEducational research, not financial advice or a rate quote. NMLS #2636410.
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What each choice costs · 30-day close
Measured over the last two years of daily lock rates, not a forecast.
- Locking now
- 0 bps expected
- Floating 30 days to close
- +4 bps expected · bad case (P95) +48 bps (likely 27–57 bps), about $162/mo on a $500K loan
- Floating, but locking if rates rise 25 bps
- +4 bps expected · bad case (P95) +34 bps, about $116/mo on a $500K loan
How reliable is the bad case? Replaying this exact method on every day since 2019, the realized 30-day move ended above that day's P95 in 8.8% of windows — about 1 in 11, where an exact P95 would give 1 in 20; over the last 12 months, 9.1%. Read it as a typical bad case, not a worst case.
Rates fell at least 25 bps in 4% and rose at least 25 bps in 16% of the last 504 windows (they overlap; roughly 24 are independent).
What each choice costs · 45-day close
Measured over the last two years of daily lock rates, not a forecast.
- Locking now
- +3 bps expected
- Floating 45 days to close
- +6 bps expected · bad case (P95) +59 bps (likely 27–66 bps), about $200/mo on a $500K loan
- Floating, but locking if rates rise 25 bps
- +6 bps expected · bad case (P95) +37 bps, about $125/mo on a $500K loan
How reliable is the bad case? Replaying this exact method on every day since 2019, the realized 45-day move ended above that day's P95 in 9.1% of windows — about 1 in 11, where an exact P95 would give 1 in 20; over the last 12 months, 9.5%. Read it as a typical bad case, not a worst case.
Rates fell at least 25 bps in 10% and rose at least 25 bps in 20% of the last 504 windows (they overlap; roughly 15 are independent).
Lender terms: CIL's own. A 45-day lock costs 1/8 point more than a 30-day lock and a 60-day lock 1/4 point more; extensions cost 1/8 point per 7 days; a lock does not re-price lower if rates fall.
Measured cost distribution from actual daily lock rates (Optimal Blue OBMMI, trailing ~2 years), not a forecast. Costs are in basis points of note rate relative to locking today, under the lender terms shown; dollar figures are 30-year P+I math. Educational research, not a rate quote or advice. NMLS #2636410.
Rate lock and equity alert questions, answered
Should I lock my mortgage rate today?
Today's call is shown at the top of this page. Each weekday the Rate Lock Index publishes a LOCK or FLOAT call built on the measured cost of being wrong: floating into a rate jump has cost more than locking a little early. It is a cost-of-regret default, not a forecast of where rates go. The right answer for you also depends on your closing date, your loan terms, and how much a rate jump would hurt you, so treat the call as one input and confirm any lock decision with your loan officer.
What is a mortgage rate lock?
A rate lock is a lender's commitment to honor a specific interest rate for a set window, usually 30 to 60 days, while your loan closes. Once you lock, your rate will not rise if the market moves against you, and in most cases it will not fall if the market improves. Locking trades upside for certainty.
What does lock vs float mean?
Locking means committing to today's rate now. Floating means staying unlocked in the hope rates drift lower before your closing. Floating can pay off when rates fall, but it carries real risk: if rates rise, your monthly payment rises with them for the life of the loan. The further you are from closing, the bigger the float decision becomes.
What is the Rate Lock Index?
The Rate Lock Index is a free daily research tool from Chad Investor Lending. It publishes a LOCK or FLOAT call built on the measured cost of being wrong (floating into a rate jump has cost more than locking a little early), plus what each choice has cost for your closing date: locking now, floating to close, or floating with a 25 bps trigger, measured over the last two years of daily lock rates under CIL's own lock terms. It also lists the Fed, inflation, jobs, and Treasury-auction dates that can move rates inside your window. The costs are measured, not a forecast.
Is the 30-year average shown here the rate I would get?
No. The headline number is the Optimal Blue daily 30-year lock-rate index, built from rates actually locked with borrowers each business day, and the Freddie Mac weekly survey is shown beside it as a benchmark. Each carries its own date. Both are market averages, not a quote and not our pricing. West Capital Lending is a wholesale brokerage: we shop your file across multiple lenders rather than quoting one retail rate sheet, and wholesale pricing typically runs below retail survey averages. Your actual rate depends on credit, equity, loan size, and product, talk to a licensed loan officer for a real number.
How accurate is the Rate Lock Index?
Honestly: the rate-direction models have no demonstrated live skill. In the pre-registered 90-day check (September 9, 2026) they hit 21% of 30-day direction calls in a period when rates rose 86% of the time. They are frozen and shown only as model internals on the dashboard. What the index publishes instead is measured: what locking or floating actually cost over the last two years of daily lock rates, for your closing date, under CIL's own lock terms. Its bad case (the 95th percentile) has been beaten about 1 time in 11 when the method is replayed since 2019, not the 1 in 20 an exact 95th percentile would give, so read it as a typical bad case, not a worst case. Every brief is logged and scored in public.
Will mortgage rates go down soon?
Nobody can promise that, and we no longer headline a probability: seven pre-registered studies found no forecastable 30-day direction. What the index shows is the market's own forward Fed path, the dates that can move rates inside your window, and what waiting has cost in the bad case.
How often is this updated?
Every weekday. The daily lock-rate index (Optimal Blue) and Treasury yields refresh each business day, the Freddie Mac survey prints weekly on Thursdays, and every number carries its own as-of date. The call you see on this page is the same one shown on the full dashboard, both read from the same live feed.
What is Equity Watch?
Equity Watch is free home equity monitoring, and it lives in the Equity Watch panel on this page. Tell us your property details and set a milestone, such as reaching enough equity for a HELOC or an investment property down payment, and we track your position using market data. When your equity crosses your threshold you get a personalized alert with your options.
Is Equity Watch free, and how often will I get equity alerts?
Completely free, no cost, no commitment, and no sales calls. You get a baseline equity report within 48 hours of signing up, then alerts only when your equity crosses a significant threshold. Every alert includes an unsubscribe link, one click and you're removed.
Can I use Equity Watch if I'm buying investment properties?
Yes. Equity Watch tracks your primary residence equity, which many investors use as the funding source for investment property purchases through a HELOC. When your equity reaches a level that could fund an investment down payment, the alert lays out both HELOC and DSCR loan options.
What is the best day of the week to lock in a mortgage rate?
There is no reliably best day. The folklore that Monday or Friday is cheaper does not hold up, because lender rate sheets are priced off mortgage-backed securities that move continuously through the trading day, and lenders can reprice intraday when the bond market moves enough. What actually drives your number is where MBS are trading when your lock is submitted, your loan profile, and how many days of lock you need. A longer lock costs more than a shorter one, so the practical question is not which weekday to pick, it is whether your file is far enough along to lock the shorter period. Scheduled economic releases such as CPI and the jobs report move rates far more than the day of the week does, which is why the Rate Lock Index lists the Fed, inflation, jobs, and Treasury-auction dates inside your window rather than a best weekday.
What lock terms are the Rate Lock Index costs based on?
CIL's own lock terms. A 45-day lock costs 1/8 point more than a 30-day lock, and a 60-day lock costs 1/4 point more. Extensions cost 1/8 point per 7 days. CIL's locks do not re-price lower if rates fall after you lock. The costs on this page are measured under those terms. Estimate only, subject to credit approval, not a loan commitment.
Is this financial advice?
No. The Rate Lock Index is educational research, not financial advice, not a rate quote, and not a commitment to lend. It does not know your loan size, closing date, or finances. For a binding quote or a lock decision on a specific loan, talk to a licensed loan officer. NMLS #2636410. West Capital Lending, Inc. NMLS #1566096. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Research only · not investment advice · not a rate lock commitment. The Rate Lock Index is research and education. It is not personalized advice, not a recommendation to lock or float a specific loan, and not an offer of credit. Past performance does not predict future rates. For a binding rate quote, contact your loan officer. NMLS #2636410. West Capital Lending, Inc. NMLS #1566096. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Live data: https://rates.chadinvestorlending.com/api/today.json