Rates Intelligence · Live dashboard
Rate Lock Index — should you lock or float your mortgage rate today?
Daily institutional-grade signal. Refreshes weekdays at 7 AM PT after FRED settles. How it works · Download one-pager (PDF)
Today's call
Checking today's call…
A clear LOCK, FLOAT, or WATCH call published every weekday morning, with the model probabilities and the current 30-year fixed average behind it.
Updated weekdays at 7 AM PT
How the index worksEducational research, not financial advice or a rate quote. NMLS #2636410.
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The 7 factors driving today's score
V1.5Market-implied path
Where is the 10-year Treasury heading vs what the forward curve says it should?
10y yield z-score vs its forward-curve-implied path over the last 60 days. Stretched above implied path → mean-reverts down → float. Below implied path → revert up → lock.
Bond vol regime
How jittery is the bond market right now?
ICE BofAML MOVE index (bond-market VIX) + realized vol on the 10y. High vol regime → unpredictable tape, asymmetric downside on a delay → lock. Calm regime → no signal.
Primary-secondary spread
How much margin are lenders baking into today's rate?
Gap between 30-yr Freddie PMMS and 10-yr Treasury (historical norm ~180 bps). Wide and tightening → margin compression pulling rates down → float. Already tight (<150 bps) → no headroom, lock.
CC MBS OAS momentum
Is the MBS market richening or cheapening week-over-week?
Current-coupon MBS option-adjusted spread, 5-day slope. Tightening OAS → MBS bid, rates follow down → float. Widening → credit stress, rates back up → lock.
Event-risk density, 14d
What's on the Fed + inflation + jobs calendar over the next 14 days?
Weighted count of FOMC (1.0), CPI (0.85), NFP (0.70), PCE (0.55), Treasury auctions (0.30-0.35). Heavy calendar → lock through it. Light calendar → no signal.
Dealer/flow proxy
Are dealers long or short MBS relative to their hedges?
MBB returns regressed against IEF over a 20-day window. MBB persistently underperforming the hedge → dealers long-axis (supply overhang) → eventual compression → float.
RSI (10y)
Where is the 10-year on its own chart?
14-day RSI on 10-year yield. Overbought (>70) → expect pullback → float. Oversold (<30) → expect bounce → lock. Mid-range (30-70) → no signal.
Rate lock questions, answered
Should I lock my mortgage rate today?
The Rate Lock Index publishes a fresh LOCK, FLOAT, or WATCH call every weekday morning — today's call is shown at the top of this page. It is an educational research signal built from bond-market conditions, not personalized advice. The right answer for you also depends on your closing date, your loan terms, and how much rate risk you can tolerate, so treat the call as one input and confirm any lock decision with your loan officer.
What is a mortgage rate lock?
A rate lock is a lender's commitment to honor a specific interest rate for a set window, usually 30 to 60 days, while your loan closes. Once you lock, your rate will not rise if the market moves against you — and in most cases it will not fall if the market improves, unless you paid for a float-down option. Locking trades upside for certainty.
What does lock vs float mean?
Locking means committing to today's rate now. Floating means staying unlocked in the hope rates drift lower before your closing. Floating can pay off when rates fall, but it carries real risk: if rates rise, your monthly payment rises with them for the life of the loan. The further you are from closing, the bigger the float decision becomes.
What is the Rate Lock Index?
The Rate Lock Index is a free daily research signal that distills bond-market conditions — Treasury yields, mortgage spreads, volatility, and Fed policy expectations — into one plain-English call: LOCK, FLOAT, or WATCH. It also publishes the model probabilities behind the call and the current 30-year fixed national average from Freddie Mac's weekly survey, refreshed weekday mornings at 7 AM Pacific.
Is the 30-year average shown here the rate I would get?
No. The number shown is the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, a national average of retail rates published weekly, so its date reflects the latest survey week, not today. It is a market benchmark, not a quote and not our pricing. West Capital Lending is a wholesale brokerage: we shop your file across multiple lenders rather than quoting one retail rate sheet, and wholesale pricing typically runs below retail survey averages. Your actual rate depends on credit, equity, loan size, and product — talk to a licensed loan officer for a real number.
How accurate is the Rate Lock Index?
Roughly two out of three high-conviction calls have been correct out-of-sample, and every call is scored publicly. The full track record — direction hit rates, calibration, and how the models have done in different rate environments — is published on the live dashboard so you can judge it yourself. No model predicts rates perfectly; the index is about tilting odds, not guarantees.
Will mortgage rates go down soon?
Nobody can promise where rates go next, and anyone who does is guessing. What the Rate Lock Index does instead is publish calibrated probabilities: each morning it estimates the odds that rates rise over the next 30 days given current bond-market conditions. Today's probabilities are shown above, and they change as the market changes.
How often is this updated?
Every weekday morning at 7 AM Pacific, after the federal data the model relies on settles. The call you see on this page is the same one shown on the full dashboard — both read from the same live feed.
Is this financial advice?
No. The Rate Lock Index is educational research — not financial advice, not a rate quote, and not a commitment to lend. It does not know your loan size, closing date, or finances. For a binding quote or a lock decision on a specific loan, talk to a licensed loan officer. NMLS #2636410. West Capital Lending, Inc. NMLS #1566096. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Research only · not investment advice · not a rate lock commitment. The Rate Lock Index is research and education. It is not personalized advice, not a recommendation to lock or float a specific loan, and not an offer of credit. Past performance does not predict future rates. For a binding rate quote, contact your loan officer. NMLS #2636410. West Capital Lending, Inc. NMLS #1566096. Equal Housing Opportunity.
Live data: https://rates.chadinvestorlending.com/api/today.json