The Market Right Now
Rates, housing data, and what it actually means for your next move, updated weekly.
Data from the Federal Reserve (FRED). Updated daily.
The Mortgage Print Went Up 8bps While the 2-Year Fell 14: The Bond Market and Freddie Are Telling Different Stories
August 3, 2026
Freddie's weekly survey, published Thursday 07/30, put the 30-year at 6.66%, up 8bps from 6.58% the week before. That is the headline that borrowers will see, and taken alone it reads like rates are climbing. Underneath it, the bond market moved the other way. The 2-year Treasury fell 14bps to 4.23% and the 10-year eased 3bps to 4.68%. So the mortgage number rose while the collateral underneath it richened. That gap is the whole story this week, and it matters because the survey is a lagging weekly gauge, not where street pricing actually is today.
Here is the mechanical piece that explains the disconnect. The PMMS-to-10yr spread is sitting near 198bps against a historical norm around 150bps. That is roughly 48bps of extra fat baked into the mortgage on top of the Treasury. When the 10-year falls but the survey rises, the spread is doing the work, not the underlying rate. For a borrower, the read is that there is embedded room in the mortgage that has nothing to do with the Fed, and spread compression is a lever that can help you even in a week where the Treasury barely moved.
The freshness caveat matters more than usual this week. This take is dated August 3, four days after that Thursday print, and daily pricing moves between weekly surveys. Since the 10-year fell after Thursday's data window, street pricing today is likely a touch below the 6.66% survey number, directionally, though I am not going to fabricate an intraday figure I do not have. If you want where pricing sits right now, check the Rate Lock Index and pull a live quote on the rates page, because a weekly average that is four days old is not your lock.
On the inflation backdrop, CPI came in at 3.5% YoY for June, core CPI at 2.6%, and core PCE at 3.3%. That core PCE reading is the sticky one and it is still well above target, which is why the front end is not running away to the downside even with the Fed in a cutting phase. Prime holds at 6.75%. The 2s10s curve at +45bps is positively sloped and steepening modestly as the front end leads lower, which is the classic shape when the market prices cuts arriving faster than long-end inflation risk resolves.
Our Rate Lock Index is calling LOCK at low confidence this week, with a 50% baseline probability that rates rise over the next 30 days, adjusted down to 34% once you account for the cutting regime. Low confidence is the honest label here. The 2-year falling 14bps while the survey rose 8bps is a mixed signal, not a green light, and I would not treat either number as a promise about next week. The asymmetry leans slightly toward locking gains you can see rather than betting on a daily print you cannot.
What I'd actually do this week, by archetype. Closing soon: lock, the Index says LOCK at low confidence and you do not gamble a file that is days from funding on a 4-day-old survey. HELOC borrowers: watch prime at 6.75%, and if the Fed cutting phase delivers, that resets faster than a fixed refi, so keep the line and do not term it out prematurely. Sub-4% first-mortgage holders: you never surrender that rate, full stop, and if you need cash you layer a HELOC on top rather than refinancing the whole balance up to 6.66%. Sideline buyers: the 198bps spread against a 150bps norm is your friend, shop multiple lenders and let spread compression, not a Fed headline, do the work.
, Chad
Have a deal you're evaluating? Run the numbers with today's rates →
Rate Trends
Where rates have been and what's driving them.
Historical Rate Trends
Data from the Federal Reserve (FRED). Updated daily.
Why the Yield Curve Matters
The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields tells you what the bond market thinks about the future. When the 10-year yields more than the 2-year (positive spread), markets expect growth. When it inverts (2-year yields more), it's historically predicted recessions. Right now the curve is normalizing, moving back toward a healthy positive spread after a prolonged inversion. The 2s10s sits at +45bps and is steepening modestly, with the 2-year falling 14bps to 4.23% while the 10-year eased just 3bps to 4.68%. That is a bull steepener, the front end leading lower as the market prices the Fed's cutting phase. It is the classic shape when cuts are expected to arrive faster than long-end inflation risk clears, and with core PCE at 3.3% the long end has reason to hold its premium. For borrowers, a steepening curve driven by the front end favors prime-linked and HELOC debt over a 30-year fixed still carrying a fat spread.
Why Rates Are Where They Are
The 30-year in Freddie's weekly survey printed 6.66% for the week ended 07/30, up 8bps from 6.58%, with the 15-year at 6.04%. Note this is a weekly national average published Thursday, not today's pricing, and this take is four days downstream of it. Underneath the survey, the 10-year Treasury eased 3bps to 4.68% and the 2-year dropped 14bps to 4.23%, so bonds richened while the mortgage average rose, a gap that lives entirely in the PMMS-to-10yr spread near 198bps against a 150bps norm. That 48bps of extra fat is the compressible piece. Inflation context: CPI 3.5% YoY for June, core CPI 2.6%, core PCE 3.3%, with prime at 6.75% and the Fed in a cutting phase. Housing supply data shows starts at 1427K annualized and existing home sales at 4.09M annualized, both thin. The monthly PMMS trend has climbed steadily from 6.05 in February to 6.54 in July, so this week's 6.66 survey extends a slow grind higher even as the front end signals easing. Because the 10-year fell after Thursday's window, street pricing today is likely a touch below the survey, directionally. Pull a live quote for where you actually stand.
Conventional / Conforming
- 30-Year Fixed: 6.66%*
- 15-Year Fixed: 6.04%*
- Jumbo (>$766K): 6.81%*
Freddie Mac PMMS · 07/30/2026
Check Your Rate →HELOC / Home Equity
- National Avg: 7.10%*
- Range: 4.74%, 11.74%
- Tied to Prime (currently 6.75%)
Bankrate National Survey, 04/2026 · Prime per FRED 06/2026
Calculate Your Equity →DSCR Investor Loans
- 30-Year Fixed: 6.00%, 7.75%*
- Interest-Only: 6.50%, 8.25%*
- 640+ FICO · No Income Docs
Non-QM lender survey, 04/2026
Analyze a Deal → Run a deal at this rate →Bank Statement Loans
- 30-Year Fixed: 6.25%, 8.50%*
- 12 or 24 month statements
- Self-employed, 660+ FICO
Non-QM lender survey, 04/2026
See How You Qualify →* Rates shown are national averages or indicative ranges based on referenced sources as of the date shown. Your actual rate will depend on credit profile, LTV, property type, loan amount, and other factors. These are not rate quotes, commitments, or guarantees. Contact us for a personalized rate. NMLS #2636410. West Capital Lending, Inc. Equal Housing Lender.
Fed Calendar & Rate Expectations
When the Fed meets next, and what the futures market expects.
Next Meeting: Jun 16, 17, 2026
Decision lands June 17 with a fresh SEP and dot plot. The April easing bias meets data that moved against it: April CPI re-accelerated to 3.8% headline, core PCE rose to 3.3%, and the 2-year backed up 23bps as markets un-priced the June cut. The dot plot will show whether the committee's median path survived the inflation data, that matters more than the decision itself.
"The calendar is doing the heavy lifting here. The Fed is in a cutting phase, and the 2-year falling 14bps to 4.23% tells you the market is pulling forward its expectations for the next move. But core PCE at 3.3% is the sticky data point that keeps any cut from being aggressive. That tension is exactly why the 2s10s sits at +45bps and is steepening, the front end prices easing while the long end holds a risk premium for inflation that has not fully resolved. For borrowers, the takeaway is that a cut, if it comes, helps HELOC and prime-linked debt first and does very little for a 30-year fixed already carrying a 198bps spread. Watch the inflation prints ahead of the next meeting, because a hot core reading is the thing that stalls the front-end rally you are counting on.", Chad
What This Means for Mortgage Rates
Fed Funds directly drives HELOC rates through Prime (currently 6.75%), when the Fed cuts, HELOC rates drop within days. Conventional and DSCR rates are driven by the 10-Year Treasury (currently 4.68%) AND the MBS-Treasury spread. That spread is sitting around 190bps vs a 150bps historical norm, when it compresses, mortgage rates drop without needing a Treasury rally. With the front end un-pricing the June cut, the spread remains the lever most likely to move in borrower favor this summer.
The Big Picture
The macro forces shaping every mortgage decision right now.
Housing Supply
3.5 Months
Months of supply nationally. Under 4 months is structurally a seller's market. New construction is running below household formation, and the lock-in effect is keeping existing inventory off the market. This floor under prices is what's driving record equity even with affordability stretched.
Homeowner Equity
$35 Trillion+
Total U.S. homeowner equity at a record. The average mortgaged homeowner has more equity than at any point in history, most of it sub-50% LTV. The asset is appreciating; for most owners it's the largest single line on the balance sheet sitting unproductive. HELOCs at 7.10% (down from a 9% peak) are the cheapest second-lien capital available.
Inflation & The Fed
3.8% CPI
April headline CPI accelerated to 3.8% YoY from 3.3% in March, still energy-led. Core CPI ticked to 2.7% and core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, rose to 3.3%. That combination is why the front end of the curve sold off and why June cut odds got repriced. The disinflation story is no longer clean: energy is the headline, but core is drifting the wrong way too.
Investor Landscape
28% of Purchases
Investors at ~28% of purchase volume nationally. DSCR origination is up YoY with non-QM lenders competing aggressively for clean files (740+ FICO, 1.25+ DSCR, 75% LTV). Baseline par rates from 6.00%. Spreads vs conventional have compressed ~75bps in six months, the institutional bid for yield is doing the work the Fed isn't.
What This Means For You
The same data reads differently depending on where you sit.
If You're a Homeowner
Your equity is growing. Your first mortgage rate (if locked before 2023) is likely a rate you'll never see again. The move: access equity through a HELOC without touching your first mortgage. Use it strategically, renovate, invest, consolidate high-interest debt. Don't let your largest asset sit idle.
Previous Market Takes
The Front End Moved 21bps and the Curve Barely Blinked: What the 2-Year Is Telling Borrowers
Last week the 30-year rose just 3bps to 6.58% while the 2-year jumped 21bps and the 10-year moved 14bps, a sign the bond market repriced near-term Fed expectations faster than the lagging mortgage print reflected.
Read →The Spread Is Doing More Damage Than the Bond: 198bps vs a 150bps Norm
Last week the 30-year survey rose to 6.55% while the 10-year moved only 3bps, so the story was the spread, not the bond. At roughly 198bps over the 10-year versus a 150bps norm, lender caution was the largest available discount without waiting on the macro.
Read →Freddie Prints 6.55 on Thursday, But the 198bps Spread Is Still Where the Real Discount Lives
Last week flagged that Freddie's 07/16 print of 6.55% came half from a 3bps rise in the 10-year and half from a widening spread, arguing the ~198bps PMMS-to-10yr gap, not the benchmark, is where the real discount lives for anyone timing a lock.
Read →Freddie Ticks Up to 6.49 as the 10-Year Retakes 4.54, But the 195bps Spread Is Still the Story
Last week Freddie ticked to 6.49% as the 10-year retook 4.54%, both up 6 bps, so the move came from the benchmark rather than the spread. The 2-year slipped to 4.16%, keeping the front end leaning on the cutting narrative.
Read →Freddie Holds at 6.43 Into a Quiet Week, But That 195bps Spread Is Still Doing the Damage
Last week Freddie held the 30-year at 6.43%, down 6 bps, even as the 10-year rose to 4.48% and the 2-year to 4.17%. The decline came out of the 195bps spread rather than the benchmark, which I flagged as the healthier version of a rate move.
Read →Freddie Prints 6.43, Down 6bps, But The 10-Year Went The Other Way And The 195bps Spread Is Still The Tax
Last week flagged Freddie's 6.43% print, down 6bps, even as the 10-year rose 7bps to 4.48%, arguing the decline came from spread compression rather than rates, with the 195bps PMMS-to-10yr spread still functioning as a tax on borrowers.
Read →Freddie Says 6.52, But That Print Is 3 Days Stale And The 207bps Spread Is The Real Tax
Prior week: Freddie's 06/11 survey printed 6.52%, up 4 bps, even as the 10-year fell 2 bps to 4.45%. The take flagged the ~207 bps spread versus a 150 bps norm as the real tax on your file, driven by nervous MBS buyers rather than the Fed.
Read →PMMS Ticked To 6.52, The Spread Is Doing The Damage, And The Lock Index Says Lock At 22%
Last week's take flagged PMMS rising 4 bps to 6.52% even as the 10-year fell 2 bps to 4.45%, arguing the widening spread, not the benchmark, was hurting borrowers, with the Lock Index calling lock at 22%.
Read →Frequently Asked Questions
Ready to Make a Move?
The data tells you where things stand. A conversation tells you what to do about it.