Rates Intelligence · Methodology · Updated November 3, 2026
How the Rate Lock Index Works
The Rate Lock Index answers one question every weekday: lock your mortgage rate now, or float until closing? It does not forecast rates. It measures what each choice has actually cost, for your closing date, over the last two years of daily lock rates, and publishes a LOCK or FLOAT call built on the cost of being wrong.
See today's callWhat It Publishes
Three things, every weekday. None of them is a prediction of where rates go next.
The call
LOCK or FLOAT
A cost-of-regret default, not a forecast. Floating into a rate jump has cost more than locking a little early, so the default is LOCK; a rule switches the call to FLOAT only when several market conditions line up strongly for it. No confidence label, no probability.
The costs
What each choice costs
For a 15, 30, 45, or 60 day close: the average and bad-case cost of locking now, floating to close, or floating with a 25 bps trigger, in basis points of rate and in dollars per month.
The calendar
Dates that can move rates
Fed decision days, inflation, jobs, GDP, and PCE releases, and 10-, 20-, and 30-year Treasury auctions inside your window, from the official schedules.
How the Costs Are Measured
There is no model in the loop. The numbers are the measured distribution of what actually happened to daily lock rates, priced under CIL's own lock terms.
- 1
Take two years of daily lock rates
Start from the Optimal Blue daily 30-year conforming lock-rate index, published on FRED, for the trailing 504 business days, about two years.
- 2
Follow every window
From every business day, look forward 15, 30, 45, and 60 calendar days (the rate on or before the target date) and record the whole daily path of the rate.
- 3
Price each choice under CIL's lock terms
On each path, work out what each choice would have cost: locking now (the lock-period pricing), floating to close (the close-date rate plus a short lock), and floating with a trigger (float, but lock the rest of the period the day the rate rises 25 bps).
- 4
Summarize the costs
Report each choice's average cost, its bad case (95th percentile) and its best case (5th percentile) in basis points of rate versus locking today, then convert them to a monthly 30-year principal-and-interest payment on the loan amount.
- 5
Check the bad case against what happened
Replay the same method on every day since 2019 and publish how often the realized move beat that day's bad case: about 1 time in 11, where an exact 95th percentile would give 1 in 20.
Why the last two years, not all history: the size of rate moves is not stable (2022 was roughly twice as wide as 2025), so a two-year window tracks the current market. Neighboring windows overlap, so each figure also shows how many windows sit behind it and roughly how many are independent. The full dashboard also converts the costs to dollars for FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo, and 15-year loans using each product's own daily rate; the cost distribution itself comes from the 30-year conforming index. ARMs and prepayment penalties are not modeled.
The Lock Terms Behind the Costs
Every cost is computed under CIL's own lock terms, and every published number carries the version of the terms it used, so past figures are never silently re-scored.
| Term | Price |
|---|---|
| 15- or 30-day lock | Base price |
| 45-day lock | 1/8 point more than a 30-day lock |
| 60-day lock | 1/4 point more than a 30-day lock |
| Extension | 1/8 point per 7 days |
| Rates fall after you lock | The lock does not re-price lower |
Estimate only, subject to credit approval, not a loan commitment.
Where the Data Comes From
Public sources, each with its own as-of date on the live page.
| Source | What it provides |
|---|---|
| Optimal Blue via FRED, daily | The daily 30-year conforming lock-rate index the costs are measured on, plus the FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo, and 15-year indexes. |
| Freddie Mac via FRED, weekly | The Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed average, shown as a benchmark. |
| Fed funds futures | The market's own forward path for the Fed's policy rate. |
| Official schedules | Fed meeting dates, the FRED release calendar (inflation, jobs, GDP, PCE), and TreasuryDirect auction dates. |
How Reliable It Is
The track record builds in public, including when it is bad. Every brief is logged and scored.
The rate-direction models have no demonstrated live skill.
In the pre-registered 90-day check on September 9, 2026, they hit 21% of 30-day direction calls in a period when rates rose 86% of the time. That rests on only 3 independent windows, so it is not a rigorous disproof, but it is not evidence of skill either. The models are frozen and shown only as model internals on the dashboard; the index no longer headlines a probability.
The call has matched always locking.
In the same review, the call had been LOCK on all 70 scored briefs. That is what a cost-of-regret default does; it is not a timing edge.
The bad case is a typical bad case, not a worst case.
Replaying the method on every day since 2019, the realized move ended above that day's bad case (95th percentile) about 1 time in 11, where an exact 95th percentile would give 1 in 20. The live page prints the current figure next to the bad case.
What Happened to the 0-100 Score
The first version of the Rate Lock Index headlined a 0-100 score built from seven weighted bond-market factors, with a star rating. That score has no demonstrated directional skill and is not the lock call. Earlier versions of this page quoted early hit rates and a calibration check for it; those figures are withdrawn. The dashboard keeps the score only as a labeled legacy panel.
Common questions
What is the Rate Lock Index?
The Rate Lock Index is a free daily research tool for one decision: lock your mortgage rate now, or float. It publishes a LOCK or FLOAT call, which is a cost-of-regret default rather than a forecast, and it measures what each choice has cost for your closing date: locking now, floating to close, or floating with a 25 bps trigger. It is research and education, not personalized advice or a recommendation to lock or float a specific loan.
Where does the Rate Lock Index data come from?
The costs come from the Optimal Blue daily 30-year conforming lock-rate index, published on FRED, over the trailing two years of business days. The Freddie Mac weekly survey (Primary Mortgage Market Survey) is shown as a benchmark. The forward Fed path comes from fed funds futures, and the event dates come from the official Fed, FRED, and TreasuryDirect schedules. Every source carries its own as-of date.
How is the LOCK or FLOAT call decided?
The call is a cost-of-regret default, not a forecast. Floating into a rate jump has cost more than locking a little early, so the default is LOCK, and a rule switches the call to FLOAT only when several market conditions line up strongly for it. The call carries no confidence label and no probability. In the September 9, 2026 review it had been LOCK on all 70 scored briefs, the same as always locking.
What happened to the 0-100 score and its seven factors?
They were retired as the headline. The 0-100 score was a snapshot of bond-market conditions built from seven weighted factors. It has no demonstrated directional skill and it is not the lock call. The dashboard keeps it only as a labeled legacy panel, and the data feed still carries it for older consumers.
How accurate is the Rate Lock Index?
Honestly: the rate-direction models have no demonstrated live skill. In the pre-registered 90-day check (September 9, 2026) they hit 21% of 30-day direction calls in a period when rates rose 86% of the time. They are frozen and shown only as model internals on the dashboard. What the index publishes instead is measured: what locking or floating actually cost over the last two years of daily lock rates, for your closing date, under CIL's own lock terms. Its bad case (the 95th percentile) has been beaten about 1 time in 11 when the method is replayed since 2019, not the 1 in 20 an exact 95th percentile would give, so read it as a typical bad case, not a worst case. Every brief is logged and scored in public.
Is the Rate Lock Index investment advice?
No. The Rate Lock Index is research and education only. It is not personalized advice, not a recommendation to lock or float a specific loan, and not an offer of credit. Past performance does not predict future rates. For a binding rate quote, contact your loan officer. NMLS #2636410.
Research only · not investment advice · not a rate lock commitment
The Rate Lock Index is research and education. It is not personalized advice, not a recommendation to lock or float a specific loan, and not an offer of credit. Past performance does not predict future rates. Markets can move sharply on data we do not yet have. For a binding rate quote and personalized analysis, contact your loan officer. NMLS #2636410. West Capital Lending, Inc. NMLS #1566096. Equal Housing Opportunity.
See today's call
Today's LOCK or FLOAT call, what each choice costs for your closing date, and the daily 30-year lock rate, updated every weekday.
Open the live Rate Lock Index